The deal is dead: What comes next?
Two years ago, Jagmeet Singh and the NDP made a big show of teaming up with Justin Trudeau to support his radical and reckless policies and agenda. The result of this alliance has been exactly what Conservatives warned it would: higher taxes, skyrocketing food and housing costs, and more crime.
Now Jagmeet (in a desperate attempt at relevance) is “ripping up” his confidence and supply agreement with the Liberal Government.
Without the deal in place the Liberals are truly a minority government once more, and vulnerable as we head into the fall session, with Parliament due to reconvene next week.
This has prompted many to ask, what comes next?
Here are four possible scenarios.
Scenario One: Nothing changes.
There is a possibility that, although the deal is done, the NDP will continue to sell out Canadians and continue its support for the Liberals. There does not need to be a formal agreement for the NDP to back Government legislation on a bill-by-bill basis. Given his refusal to commit to a non-confidence vote and
a fall election, this is a very real possibility.
As one national columnist wrote earlier this week: “In any negotiation an essential component of one’s ability to extract value and concessions from the opposition is credibility of threat. Following two-and-half-years of posturing and then retreating, one can be forgiven for thinking this is, once again, a lame ploy by Singh to look tough to his acolytes and then retreat into obscurity. He has…no credibility left, and no one should give him the benefit of the doubt.”
(This was, after all, the same man who claimed “victory” in the last two elections despite seeing the NDP’s number of seats cut in half.)
Scenario Two: Enter the Bloc
With the growing irrelevance of the NDP, the Liberals could find a new partner in the Bloc Quebecois.
Bloc leader Yves Francois Blanchette has stated he is willing to work with the Trudeau, provided he is willing to make significant concessions to Quebec (what every Canadian wants to hear). The Bloc will prop up the Liberals in exchange for more power over immigration to Quebec, recouping costs they feel are owed to Quebec for dealing with asylum seekers, more money for healthcare, passage of Bill C-319 (which would raise pension payments for seniors age 65-74 to those received by those 75+), cutting off federal subsidies for oil companies, and less federal infringement on areas of provincial jurisdiction.
Leading a regional party, Blanchette has far less to lose than Singh and that puts him in much stronger negotiating position. So, the Liberals could find a new governing partner in the Bloc, but it will be expensive for Canadians.
Scenario Three: Kill switch.
The PM’s most strategic option now is to prorogue parliament. Prorogation is a tool that effectively shuts down everything. Every bill before the house dies, committee meetings cease, investigations stop. It is a hard re-set. MPs are sent home, and the PM and Cabinet govern by “orders in council” (executive orders). While it seems undemocratic, it is a tool that has been used many times over the years by both Liberal and Conservative Prime Ministers.
According to Canada’s Constitution, Parliament must meet at least once every 12 months, so Trudeau has time to play with. Canada’s next fixed election date is October 20th of next year. An election campaign cannot be shorter than 37 days or longer than 51 days. As such, Trudeau could simply choose to prorogue until September of next year, guaranteeing his premiership for one more year, and then go straight into a campaign. It would mean a lot of bad press and public anger but that really isn’t any different than what he’s currently facing.
There is a very real chance he will ignore his critics and Canadians as a whole and simply close the doors until he has to come before the people next fall.
Scenario Four: An election.
In a bizarre way, the end of the deal could see Justin and Jagmeet actually giving Canadians what they are asking for, an election. Parliament is scheduled to resume on Monday. Conservatives will use our first opportunity to bring a confidence motion before the House and the NDP and Bloc will need to choose if they will side with Trudeau or side with suffering Canadians. If they vote non-confidence, we are into an election.
There is also the possibility that Justin Trudeau, eager to pursue a fourth term, could choose to call for an early election himself.
Whatever happens next week, and in the coming weeks, one thing Canadians can be assured of is it won’t be dull.
More importantly, Canadians can be assured that Conservatives will be there to hold the Liberals, NDP, and Bloc accountable.
We will force confidence votes until this failed and corrupt government falls. Then we can have a carbon tax election, and a new common-sense Conservative Government that will axe the tax, build the homes, fix the budget and stop the crime.
